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The day is rapidly approaching when there won’t be enough workers to do the day-to-day jobs Hong Kong people take for granted.迷你倉價錢 A labor shortage will hit in 2018, posing an enduring threat to the city’s future economic growth. Action is imperative. Oswald Chan reports. It’ll happen this way: Hong Kong’s manpower resources will climb steadily until 2018, then enter a sharp decline. Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying highlighted the problem after an Economic Development Commission (EDC) meeting in early July. “The way we address the labor shortage will have implications for Hong Kong’s economic development.” Leung says. “If we fail to tackle the problem in good time, it will create a bottleneck impeding the city’s economic development.” The “Report on Manpower Projection to 2018” by the Hong Kong government, released in April concluded, Hong Kong will suffer a labor shortage of 14,000 in 2018 if the local economy continues to expand at a rate of 4 percent. If the economy grows faster, say 6.5 percent, the anticipated labor shortfall would be a staggering 163,800. The city will record a labor surplus of 202,700 only if the local economy struggles along at a marginal 1.5 percent economic growth rate. Manpower resources in Hong Kong will dwindle from 3.55 million in 2018 to 3.37 million in 2035, according to the report. Over the same period, participation in the labor force (the number who are employed or are actively seeking work), will shrink from the 2012 figure of 58.8 percent, to 47.6 percent in 2041, according to government figures. Hong Kong’s economic growth is partly attributed to its manpower growth, therefore, cessation of growth of manpower resources spells trouble. Government statistics reveal that Hong Kong achieved an average economic growth rate of 4 percent annually over the past two decades. Of this 4 percent economic growth, 1 percent is contributed by growth in manpower numbers, and the remaining 3 percent credited to improvements in productivity. Foreign bodies Clearly, one remedy for the looming crisis is the recruitment of talents from abroad but that endeavor hasn’t been going well enough to resolve the potential manpower crisis. Figures up to the end of 2012 show that the government attracted 87,000 workers outside the city under its general employment policy, its Admission Scheme for Mainland Talents and Professionals and its Quality Migrant Admission Scheme. The figure, 87,000 accounts for only 2.3 percent of the total workforce — insufficient to provide an effective remedy. The Labour and Welfare Bureau said in June that the administration is conducting another round of manpower estimates, setting 2012 as the base year for projecting manpower supply and demand until 2022. Those projections will be released in the first quarter of 2014. Experts are saying already, the government needs long-term strategies relating to policies on employment, population and education, to address a long-term manpower decline. One option would be to encourage more elderly people and women not currently in the workforce to take jobs. A more flexible population policy could help with the labor shortfall, for example by stimulating the city’s dwindling fertility rate. Couples could be offered subsidies to have babies. The statutory retirement age could be extended by two to three years. An overhaul of the education system would help — placing more emphasis on technical education to energize the workforce in that sector. Apprenticeship model Developed countries, including the US and the UK, are emulating Germany’s apprenticeship model. Under the German system, the country’s technical schools and private corporations are cooperating to create tailor-made technical training that makes it easier for students to find an employment niche once their training is completed. Germany has one of the lowest youth unemployment rates in Europe. “The administration is rather slow to develop technical education to enable Hong Kong to cultivate a substantial, stable and highly-skilled technical workforce to meet market demand. The government should do more to develop technical education to solve the projected labor shortfa迷你倉庫l,” Legislative Council Manpower Panel Deputy Chairman Wong Kwok-kin tells China Daily. These long-term recommendations take time. A closer horizon is needed to address the impending labor crises. Importation of personnel to meet the manpower requirements of certain industries is one feasible option for the short term. The Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce (HKGCC), the city’s oldest and largest business organization with around 4,000 corporate members, believes the government should allow certain industries to hire labor abroad. “For tourism, food and beverage, retail, construction and elder care industries, the actual labor supply and demand situations present huge discrepancies that need to be bridged. If not, those manpower shortages will undermine future economic development,” HKGCC Chief Executive Officer Shirley Yuen tells China Daily. “Hong Kong society should approach the sensitive labor importation issue in a rational manner. HKGCC will do its part to facilitate rational discussion,” Yuen says. Stanley Lau, chairman of the Federation of Hong Kong Industries (FHKI)’s, also an EDC member, agrees imported labor offers a partial solution. “As far as I know, labor shortages in the construction, food catering, nursing home and the hotel industries are rampant because these industries require shift work and the nature of the work is tedious.” Lau warns. “If we do not allow these labor-short industries to recruit overseas, rising costs in these industries will soar up that will drive up product prices eventually.” Wong, the Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions representative in the Legislative Council (LegCo), begs to differ. “Employers use the labor shortfall as an excuse to import low-cost foreign labor to keep wages down. As far as we know, most local low-skilled technical workers cannot fund suitable jobs, even now.” “The Hong Kong government already installed the Supplementary Labor Scheme (SLS) to import low-skilled technical level workers on a limited scale to satisfy market demand, so there is no need to import more other than through the SLS program,” says Wong. Mega projects The severe shortage of workers in the construction industry may be the best example to illustrate how a labor shortage can impede the city’s economic growth. There’s already a construction industry labor shortage, just as the Hong Kong government is preparing to pump more than HK$70 billion annually into infrastructure projects over the next five years. Local construction companies say there is a 20 percent employment vacancy rate throughout the industry. It’s expected to get worse starting in 2014, when 10 mega infrastructure projects announced in 2007 start phasing in, on schedule. The labor shortage throughout the industry is so acute, that most construction workers were handed 25 percent to 30 percent pay increases last year, contributing to soaring costs for new construction. That alone delivers a hard hit to the city’s competitiveness. Labor costs today account for 34 percent of total construction costs, and construction costs, in general account for 30 percent of the city’s total project development costs. The negative impact of skyrocketing construction costs has added fuel to the already raging fire on local home prices and would-be homebuyers who see their prospects of ever owning a home vanishing into thin air. That’s the low-end market. Hong Kong’s competitive position nevertheless, relies heavily on its ability to attract, high quality, highly-skilled professionals. “As a global business hub, Hong Kong’s labor market must be flexible enough to absorb other highly-skilled professional talents,” Chinese University of Hong Kong’s Department of Economics Professor Chong Tai-leung tells China Daily. “If the Hong Kong government can streamline the approval procedure for imported labor, that could help maintain the city’s attractiveness to highly-skilled professionals available on the global market.” Contact the writer at oswald@chinadailyhk.com If we fail to tackle the problem in good time, it will create a bottleneck impeding the city’s economic development.” Leung Chun-ying chief executive, hong kong 儲存